10:30 p.m. — Tornado watch issued for Central Virgnia, including Culpeper and Fredericksburg until 1 a.m.; some strong storms could affect D.C. area, too

Radar shows some intense storms in southwest Virginia moving into Central Virginia. “A line of storms with a history of wind damage will spread northeastward for the next 2-3 hours before weakening,” the National Weather Service writes. “A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations in the line.” These storms produced a 70 mph gust in Nelson County at 8:40 p.m.

Even though the storms will probably weaken some reaching the immediate D.C. area, we can’t rule out some isolated severe storms and even a brief tornado — especially west of the Beltway — during the pre-dawn hours.

Keep your phones on tonight so you can receive a wireless alert if a tornado warning is issued. If your area is placed under a warning, seek shelter at the lowest level where you are, away from windows.

Advertisement

From this afternoon...

Temperatures rose to and past 70 in most spots this afternoon as gusty south winds pump moisture into the area ahead of a cold front. That advancing front will produce numerous showers and storms into tonight, some of which could be strong or even severe, with a quite small chance of damaging gusts or a brief tornado. Comparatively nicer tomorrow, but still a bit unsettled with the jet stream parked overhead.

Listen to our daily D.C. forecasts: Apple Podcasts | Amazon Echo | More options

Through tonight: Scattered showers are around for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. They will mostly pass quickly, but some might drop quick downpours. Odds of rain are at their highest and most widespread later this evening through an hour or two after midnight.

A smaller window in there, perhaps from 9 p.m. to midnight, might see strong or severe storms, although the lack of heating and fuel at night should generally limit their intensity. After that, expect a couple more showers into dawn, with lows in the mid-50s to around 60. Gusts from the south are up to 30 or 40 mph through the evening, before they turn to come from the west later.

Advertisement

View the current weather at The Washington Post.

Tomorrow (Friday): We’ll see some sunshine in the morning, but it’s the self-defeating kind that helps bubble up clouds into the midday. Some showers or a storm might pop up in the afternoon as very cold air aloft creates an unstable environment. Showers should then wane into sunset. Highs will end up in the mid-60s to near 70. Winds from the southwest gust to around 30 mph.

See David Streit’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on X and Instagram. For related traffic news, check out Gridlock.

Pollen update: Tree pollen is HIGH at 1,461 grains per cubic meter of air, the highest it has been this spring.

Storm details: While the highest chance of severe storms is west of the Appalachian chain, some intense activity may make it to our region. High moisture levels (dew points around 60 degrees) will support some storms and brief heavy rain. About a quarter-inch to a half-inch may fall in many spots, with more in areas that see multiple storms.

Advertisement

Capital Weather Gang severe weather expert Jeff Halverson noted the following about the thunderstorm threats this evening …

During the evening, a surge of unstable air will briefly work its way into the region from the south, ahead of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, winds aloft strengthen, increasing the wind shear that helps convective cells organize into stronger storms.

These ingredients will favor a broken band of showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through. A couple of storms could briefly reach strong-to-severe limits, but we do not expect an organized, widespread severe event — rather, isolated instances of wind damage.

Given the intense nature of the low-level wind shear, we cannot completely rule out a brief cloud-level circulation that could spin up into a weak tornado. The greater severe threat will be west of the region, over parts of West Virginia and Ohio.

Want our 5 a.m. forecast delivered to your email inbox? Subscribe here.

ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMSmrdOhnKtnYmV%2FdXuPbWZqaV%2BZsG6t0Z6YZp6fp7KkrdKtZKygn6yys7%2BMrKuoqp2ofA%3D%3D